I'm pretty happy watching Applied Materials hit that all-time high of $307 last week. Stock is trading around $301 now. The earnings looked solid, beating expectations. Plus, TSMC's strong results and their bigger spending plans for 2026 should help AMAT since they supply the equipment. Some analysts are throwing out price targets as high as $360.
But I'm not popping champagne yet. Those export restrictions to China could cut $600 million from revenue this year, and there's ongoing uncertainty about licensing. China's a huge market for semiconductor equipment, and if restrictions tighten or shipments get delayed, it could really hurt. I'm optimistic but keeping a close eye on the China situation.